by Joe Davis
It’s that time of year again, where optimism rings through this country from end to end. Whether it’s Washington DC or Washington State, Boston to Los Angeles, football fans believe that THIS is the year that their team will win it all. From little league to the NFL, you won’t find a fan that thinks that their team has no chance to Win a championship. This is why football is America’s game. In the NFL the new draft pick or free agent signing gives a team that finished in last place a feeling of hope. In college that new recruiting class or spring practice has the university believing that a conference championship is within grasp. Even at the high school level, the 15 year old kid that had a 6 inch growth spurt has the school with state championship dreams.
So how realistic are your teams’ chances in winning the ultimate prize? 3% chance if you are talking the NFL. 0.8% chance of winning the national championship. On lower levels the odds are even greater, where there may be over 2,000 schools in a state, all competing for a state title. And that’s what makes it great. Even with these amazing odds, we still believe that our team will win the championship THIS year (Full disclosure; I am a Dallas Cowboys fan and I still believe that if everything breaks right, we can win it all). The passion that we as football fans show for our sport is awesome. Now I’m not here to compare with other sports (partly because it’s not even close); just to uplift my sport. From programs that are perennial contenders to that dark horse that has never been in a championship game, the passion is the same. THIS IS OUR YEAR. WE ARE GOING TO BEAT OUR RIVALS. WE WILL WIN IT ALL.
So as training camps continue to open in the next couple of weeks, our optimism may begin to fade. This dude has a season ending injury. This guy hasn’t progressed as much as we would like. Why isn’t the newer player as good as he was hyped? Many dreams will get crushed. Some will be delayed. And a few will be sidetracked. It makes the ultimate prize that much greater when we finally reach it. Enjoy your teams’ season for all of the ups and downs that are sure to follow.
Joe Davis of Sideline to Sideline, for War Room Sports
In 2011 when the University of Michigan hired Brady Hoke as their HC from San Diego State, the team was thought to be in much better shape with him replacing Rich Rodriguez. That held true his first year, after leading the Wolverines to a 11-2 record. That included a Sugar Bowl win over Virginia Tech. Hoke was also named Big Ten coach of the year. Things looked very promising for the Michigan program.
The following year, things were not so great. The team finished 8-5 and lost their bowl game to South Carolina. That was the infamous “Jadeveon Clowney hit game”. The team struggled running the ball and was very inconsistent in the passing game led by Denard Robinson and Devin Gardner. Michigan’s football team as a whole just seemed to regress. This was clearly not the same team from 2011.
With another top 10 recruiting class coming in, 2013 was supposed to be the year Michigan got back to the basics. With Gardner leading the way at QB full time and Brady Hoke leading from the sidelines. After starting 5-0, it seemed things were back on track. Though none of the 5 wins were really impressive, the bottom line was they were undefeated at 5-0. Once they began to face Big Ten competition, they fell straight on their faces, finishing 2-6, including a 14-31 beat down given by Kansas State in the Buffalo Wild Wings bowl.
The free fall Michigan has endured over the past two years falls at head coach Brady Hoke’s feet. Continuously getting out coached game in and game out and not putting together an adequate defense on the field. Outside of a few players including LB Jake Ryan, that defense is awful.
Simply put, 2014 is a make it or break it year for coach Hoke. The team has already fired OC Al Borges and replaced him with Alabama OC Doug Nussmeier. The Wolverines should see immediate benefits from this hire. Nussmeier led one of the most potent offenses in the country with Alabama, he can definitely do the same for Michigan. The talent is there, but coach Hoke needs to help them maximize that. Expect Hoke and Nussmeier to work hand in hand to restore this offense.
With yet another great recruiting class coming in led by 5-star ATH Jabrill Peppers, the defense can drastically be improved. But yet again that falls on Hoke and how ready he gets his guys to play. Maybe a scheme change is necessary. I don’t think that will happen though.
As you can see there are a lot of factors for how Michigan’s 2014 season goes. Most will depend on how fast this defense can improve. If not, Brady Hoke and the rest of his staff will be in the unemployment line for coaches.
1. Houston Texans (2-14) – Louisville QB Teddy Bridgewater
With new head coach Bill O’Brien, expect the Texans to select their franchise QB in Teddy Bridgewater. Houston’s QB play this season has been miserable, and it’s time for the team to move on from Matt Schaub and Case Keenum. Coach O’Brien will be excited to coach this going man up, and maximize his potential. Bridgewater has all the tools you want in a franchise guy. The Texans will be smiling from ear to ear when they call this pick in.
2. St Louis Rams (via WSH) (3-13) – South Carolina DE Jadeveon Clowney
Does pairing the most dominant pass rusher in this draft class with Robert Quinn, Chris Long, Alec Ogletree, and Michael Brockers sound good? It does to me and I’m sure it does to coach Jeff Fisher as well. The front 7 would cause havoc year in and year out. There has been some rumbling of the Rams possibly trading out of this spot, but if that does not happen, expect to hear Clowney’s name called.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-12) – UCF QB Blake Bortles
Jaguars FINALLY get their guy at QB. Bortles is the safest pick of the QB’s left on the board, and the Jaguars would be happy to have him. Bortles has been one of the fastest rising players in this year’s class. Rightfully so, he possesses great arm strength, accuracy, high football IQ and the mobility to escape pass rushers on the edge. The Blaine Gabbert era is over. I bet that sounds like music to Jags’ fans ears.
4. Cleveland Browns (4-12) – Texas A&M QB Johnny Manziel
The Texas A&M QB is the most puzzling out of all the quarterback prospects in this draft. On one hand, his playmaking ability and knack for making plays all over the field can’t be denied. On the other, his lack of maturity could pose a big problem in his NFL career. The Browns will have to decide which one out weighs the other. A QB with Manziel’s skill set, may be too hard for Cleveland to pass up though.
5. Oakland Raiders (4-12) – Texas A&M OT Jake Matthews
The Raiders appear to like what they have in young QB Matt McGloin. Why not protect him by going out and getting him the best offensive tackle in this draft. Oakland needs to build depth on that roster. Their o-line play last year was horrible. Pairing Matthews with stud tackle Jared Veldheer would open up lanes for the struggling Darren McFadden and make life a little easier for McGloin.
6. Atlanta Falcons (4-12) – UCLA LB Anthony Barr
Besides Jadeveon Clowney, Barr is probably the most athletically gifted player in this entire draft. With just straight raw ability, Anthony Barr is a terror coming off the edge. He is a bit wet behind the years because he has only played defense for 2 years, but he is this good now, imagine his ceiling. He could be un-blockable at the next level. This is exactly what Atlanta needs. They struggled getting to the passer all year, which played a part in their poor record this season. In 3 years, Barr could be one of the best defensive players in all of the NFL.
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-12) – Buffalo LB Khalil Mack
New head coach Lovie Smith’s first pick will be a defensive player. What better player to pick than Khalil Mack. A downright playmaker on the football field. Adding him with star LB Lavonte David will give opposing offenses fits. Lovie Smith will have fun coaching up this supremely talented linebacker.
8. Minnesota Vikings (5-10-1) – Fresno State QB Derek Carr
Carr’s last name will probably scare some teams off, seeing that his brother David Carr was a disaster in the NFL. But these brothers couldn’t be more different. Derek Carr has elite arm strength and can make every throw on the football field. His downfall is sloppy mechanics. But that can be fixed with good coaching. If he puts in the work, Minnesota will reap the benefits. Vikings desperately need to hit on a QB, especially after dropping the ball so bad with the Christian Ponder pick.
9. Buffalo Bills (6-10) – Texas A&M WR Mike Evans
This may be a little high for the stud WR, but Buffalo needs playmakers on offense. Yes, Sammy Watkins could go here as well, but I think Buffalo will target the big 6’5″ Evans here. It will give promising young QB EJ Manuel a huge target to throw to, and will attract double teams so Roberts Woods can do some damage. He would also be a terror in the red zone.
10. Detroit Lions (7-9) – Clemson WR Sammy Watkins
The most explosive receiver in this class. Watkins has it all. Elite speed, hands, and route running. He’s only 6’1″ but plays a lot bigger than his height suggests. He’s just a playmaker. With him on the opposite side of Megatron, a lot of offensive coordinators will lose sleep preparing to play the Lions.
11. Tennessee Titans (7-9) – Auburn OT Greg Robinson
Assuming the Titans hang on to RB Chris Johnson, this would be a great pick. Robinson is one of the top tackles in this class, and would immediately upgrade the offensive line for Tennessee. Holes would open for Chris Johnson the moment Robinson steps on the line. Titans could also use a linebacker here, but I think they will continue to try and make their RB happy.
12. New York Giants (7-9) – Alabama LB CJ Mosley
Cornerback and offensive line will be a strong choice here as well, but this class is pretty deep on cornerbacks, and they could sign a couple o-linemen in free agency. Why not add some young talent on that front 7 of the Giants with drafting CJ Mosley. He would be an immediate upgrade to New York’s linebacking core and would pair nicely with Jon Beason. This is the first step in rebuilding that defense.
13. St Louis Rams (7-9) – USC WR Marqise Lee
I expect the Rams to trade down with this pick and eventually select Marqise Lee. While Sam Bradford may not be the answer for the Rams, it seems they are going all in for him, so why not get him some more weapons to help him succeed? Lee is arguably the best route-runner in this NFL draft and will have absolutely no problem getting open in the NFL. He also has a great set of hands and can make the tough catch if needed. We could possibly be looking at the next Torry Holt.
14. Chicago Bears (8-8) – Alabama S Ha Ha Clinton-Dix
With Charles Tillman hitting the free agency market, Chicago needs to retool their secondary. Clinton Dix would step in at safety and make plays right away. Clearly the best safety on the board, the Bears can’t go wrong selecting the talented Bama safety.
15. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-8) – Michigan State CB Darqueze Dennard
Steelers are jumping up and down right now with the best cornerback on the board sliding to them at 15. He would bring a physicality the Steelers and Mike Tomlin loves. He plays the run like a safety and is not afraid to stick his nose in there and make a tackle. This would also be a great start in adding some fresh young talent to that aging defense.
16. Baltimore Ravens (Coin Flip)(8-8) – North Carolina TE Eric Ebron
TE Dennis Pitta is coming off of an injury and TE Ed Dickson didn’t exactly have his best year. Eric Ebron is a dynamic tight end and would provide an upgrade for Baltimore and Joe Flacco. The 100 million dollar QB would love this pick. Ebron would come in and help the passing game drastically and give Baltimore the best playmaking TE they have had since Shannon Sharpe.
17. Dallas Cowboys (Coin Flip)(8-8) – Notre Dame DT Louis Nix III
Cowboys need all the help they can get on defense. The huge 340 pound Notre Dame defensive tackle could be that run stuffer Dallas so desperately needs. Safety is also a huge possibility here, but I think they grab Nix to anchor that front seven.
18. New York Jets (8-8) – Texas Tech TE Jace Amaro
New York Jets receiving options are laughable. Outside of the strange Santonio Holmes and injured Dustin Keller, the Jets have absolutely nothing to be impressed about. Getting young talented playmakers in the fold for QB Geno Smith is essential in his growth process. Drafting Texas Tech’s Jace Amaro would be a start. Amaro will be a matchup nightmare for defenders in the NFL, and make the learning curve for Geno a little bit easier.
19. Miami Dolphins (8-8) – Auburn RB Tre Mason
Offensive tackle is a huge need for Miami, but I feel so is the running back position. Lamar Miller and Daniel Thomas have basically done nothing since entering the league. Miller has the potential, but for some reason he hasn’t been able to put it all together. They need another RB in the fold. Insert Auburn stud RB Tre Mason here. Mason would bring a toughness both Miller and Thomas lack. He could carry the load for the Dolphins so QB Ryan Tannehill doesn’t have to throw the ball so much every game. This might be a little high for a running back to go in the draft but Mason possesses outstanding vision and breakaway speed coveted by NFL teams today.
20. Arizona Cardinals (10-5) – Michigan OT Taylor Lewan
Arizona led by HC Bruce Arians is going to be a force in the NFC for a long time. They don’t have any gaping holes besides at running back, so why not sure up that offensive line for Carson Palmer? There’s a good chance Lewan doesn’t slide this far, but if he does, Arizona should hop all over the chance to draft him.
21. Green Bay Packers (8-7-1) – Clemson LB Vic Beasley
Vic Beasley is a beast. Him and a healthy Clay Matthews would do damage. His closing speed and burst are what make Beasley a intriguing prospect. Similar to Seahawks Bruce Irvin, he relies on his athleticism a lot to make plays, but if coached up he could be a special edge rusher in the NFL.
22. Philadelphia Eagles (10-6) – Oklahoma State CB Justin Gilbert
Gilbert is exactly what the doctor ordered for Philly. He may not be the shutdown corner Michigan State CB Dennard is, but when it comes to making the big play, Justin Gilbert is your man. TCU CB Jason Verrett is also a possibility here, but I think Gilbert’s playmaking ability and ridiculous athletic ability makes him the pick here. The Eagles’ secondary struggled a lot this year. Adding a talent like this will make coach Kelly a happy man.
23. Kansas City Chiefs (11-5) – Florida State WR Kelvin Benjamin
The hero of the BCS Championship game is oozing with potential. His 6’5″ frame gives him the ability to make the tough catch and create mismatches for cornerbacks. He’s a bit raw, but the overwhelming potential is there. Alex Smith could use a big WR like this. Benjamin could make the Chiefs offense that much more dangerous next season.
24. Cincinnati Bengals (11-5) – TCU CB Jason Verrett
Bengals are thrilled to land Verrett here. Needing more depth in the secondary, the TCU product is a great fit for Cincinnati. Great coverage skills, but is a little undersized. Still, that being said, this kid can play. Bengals already boast one of the best defenses in the NFL, so being able to snatch Verrett here, the rich get richer.
-Louisville QB Teddy Bridgewater, 6’3″, 220 pounds
3,523 Passing Yards, 28 TDs, 4 int, 70.2%
What he brings to the table: Football IQ, Accuracy, Toughness, Arm Strength, and Pocket Awareness
Teddy Bridgewater is considered the prize of the QB class this year. Rightfully so, he brings a very good skill set to the table. His pocket awareness and poise are incredible. Add that with pinpoint accuracy and you can see what all the hype is about. He doesn’t have the upside of past QB’s taken number 1, but he still is a great QB prospect. His ceiling isn’t as high as UCF QB Blake Bortles or Texas A&M QB Johnny Manziel. What you see is what you get with Bridgewater. That’s not necessarily a bad thing.
Durability may be a concern for him though. He has taken a lot of hits over his career. Mostly because he hangs so tight in the pocket. The talented QB also has a tendency of playing down to his competition. The teams you think he’s going to pick apart, you come away from the game wanting more.
Draft Projection: Top 5
-UCF QB Blake Bortles, 6’4″, 230 pounds
3,280 Passing Yards, 22 TDs, 7 int, 68.1%
What he brings to the table: Prototypical Size, Arm Strength, High Upside, and Mobility.
Bortles has snuck up on everybody this year and put himself into the conversation of being the first QB taken off the board. He has scouts drooling over his physical tools and upside. He’s very good in the pocket, but can escape when pressure is in his face. No, he won’t be Cam Newton, but having that ability to escape pass-rushers is a plus. His downside would be he hasn’t played top competition at the collegiate level and his passing mechanics could use some work. With the right coach and QB coach, he could develop into a special quarterback. He reminds me a lot of another player who hadn’t faced topped competition in college, but you could clearly see all the physical tools. Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger.
Draft Projection: Top 15
-Alabama QB AJ McCarron, 6’4″, 214 pounds
2,676 Passing Yards, 26 TDs, 5 int, 67.6%
What he brings to the table: Leadership, Accuracy, Pocket Awareness, and Poise.
The Bama QB doesn’t have a high ceiling, but his skills translate well to the NFL. He may need to sit for a year or two, to hone his skills behind a vet. His leadership and accuracy will serve him well at the next level. His college numbers aren’t as gaudy as some of the other top passers in college football, but that’s mainly because Alabama runs a power run scheme. If not for that, his numbers would be right up there. McCarron doesn’t have ideal arm strength, but it’s strong enough to make all the throws at the next level. How he develops will play a major part on how the QB will turn out. If he’s thrown into the fire too soon, it could ruin him.
Draft Projection: Mid 1st-Early 2nd Round
-Texas A&M QB Johnny Manziel, 6’1″, 210 pounds
3,732 Passing Yards, 33 TDs, 13 int, 69.1%
What he brings to the table: Playmaking Ability, Athleticism, Arm Strength, Instincts.
Johnny Manziel might be the greatest college quarterback ever. Statistically, you could make an argument. How that greatness translates to the pros, remains to be seen. Manziel’s biggest obstacle he has to overcome, to achieve that greatness is his immaturity. If he comes into the NFL ready to learn and work hard, no doubt he will be a star. His playmaking ability and instincts are second to none. Some may say he is too short to play QB in the NFL and be successful, but Seahawks QB Russell Wilson is putting an end to that stereotype. If you’re a playmaker as Wilson and Manziel are, height means nothing. It’s just a number. He also needs to work on his mechanics. He tends to try and make every play, and that leads to inaccurate passes and costly interceptions. Once that is corrected, sky’s the limit for this kid. But he has to put in the work.
Draft Projection: Top 10
-Fresno State QB Derek Carr, 6’3″, 205 pounds
5,080 Passing Yards, 50 TDs, 8 int, 68.7%
What he brings to the table: Elite Arm Strength, Accuracy, Pocket Awareness and Mobility.
Let me just get this out the way. Derek Carr is by far a better QB prospect than his older brother ever was. Carr is blessed with a cannon arm and is the definition of a gunslinger on the football field. When his mechanics are right, his accuracy is tremendous. But like his older brother David, sloppy footwork is an issue. While that bad footwork doesn’t rear its ugly head too often, it’s still an issue that needs to be corrected at the next level. This issue was front and center in Fresno State’s bowl game loss vs USC. If this is not corrected, you could see Derek Carr end up like Lions QB Matthew Stafford. Can throw the ball all over the field, but his sloppy footwork and mechanics result in a lot of back-breaking interceptions. There is no doubt Carr needs a bit of refining, but his upside is extremely high. The lack of competition he faced will also raise some eyebrows, but his physical tools will be too good to pass up in the first 15 picks.
Draft Projection: Top 15
Conclusion: This is a very good crop of quarterbacks in this class. Everybody brings something different to the table. The slight edge goes to Teddy Bridgewater for the best QB in this class. But it’s by a very slight margin. Johnny Manziel would be my #1 QB, but the immaturity factor is too big for me to look past. While he might have the greatest upside of the 5 QB’s, he is also the greatest risk. Bridgewater is easily the safest pick at QB. You know exactly what you are getting. One thing’s for sure, this 2014 NFL Draft is top-heavy with great talent at the quarterback position and it’s going to be interesting to see who’s name is called first.
With all the Heisman hype being talked about on just about every sports site, sports show etc., one name that constantly gets lost in the shuffle is Northern Illinois QB Jordan Lynch. The 6-foot quarterback has put his team on his back and led them to a 12-0 record this year and to the MAC championship. Seemingly breaking a new record every time he touches the field, the QB doesn’t get the same respect as a Jameis Winston or Johnny Manziel. The level of competition is the big reason for that. With Winston and Manziel playing in two of the premier conferences in the nation, the level of competition is indeed different. But the way Lynch is performing cannot be discredited because of who he’s playing week in and week out. He doesn’t make the conferences or set schedules. He just plays and plays at a high level every single week.
The dynamic QB’s numbers on the season are even more evidence he should be among the Heisman finalists in New York this year. Having passed for 2,457 passing yards & 22 touchdowns, and rushing for 1,755 yards & 20 touchdowns, you would be hard-pressed to find a more productive QB in the nation. Johnny Manziel put up similar numbers last year when he won the Heisman Trophy. So for Lynch to be a long-shot for the award is downright disrespectful. There is no doubt in my mind he would succeed in a top college conference. Northern Illinois’ first win and highlight on the season this year was their 30-27 victory over the Iowa Hawkeyes. In that game, he proved he can play with the bigger teams in the country, passing for 275 yards, 3 touchdowns, and rushing for 56 yards. Granted, Iowa isn’t Florida State, Texas A&M, Alabama, etc, but they are one of the better teams in the Big Ten and a respectable opponent.
We need to stop short-handing these top performers in college sports just because of who is on their schedule or what conference they are in. Not everybody can do what Lynch is doing. If that were the case, you would see more players putting up his kind of numbers. You don’t, because it’s not an easy thing to do, no matter who you are facing.
Simply put, Jordan Lynch is just a blue-collar football player. He might not have the prototypical size you want for your starting QB, but you can’t measure competitiveness and heart. He gets the job done and is a general on the football field. This is a guy you want in your huddle every Saturday. And this incredible season he is having deserves as much praise as the other top QB’s in the country. Appreciate the high level he is performing on and not the name of the conference or team on the jersey.