Posts Tagged ‘Ryan Kantor’

2013 MLB Top 10 Starting Pitchers

Monday, April 1st, 2013

by Ryan Kantor

 

 

 

 

Zack Grienke, was originally at #8, between teammates Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee.  The issue arose when he was recently shut down with elbow inflammation and although he seems to be fine, there’s just no sense in taking a risk.  There is so little deviation among pitchers in the 8-13 range.  If you’re taking a pitcher in this area, you just need a reliable ace, so Grienke drops out of the top 10 to 13th-ish.

10. CC Sabathia, SP, New York Yankees
Sabathia is as steady as they come.  He’s come back strong this Spring after an offseason elbow scope and although the Yankees offense won’t be as potent this year, he’ll still earn his share of wins.  He consistently posts 200 strikeouts, a low ERA, a solid WHIP, and 200 innings.  His injury doesn’t seem to be a concern and he’ll again lead a veteran Yankee rotation.  He’s now at the tail-end of his prime, but we can still expect very strong numbers.  Going in the 5th round of 12-team leagues, he’s a fair value too.

9. Jered Weaver, SP, Los Angeles Angels
Jered Weaver is already 30 years old.  That seemed to come so quickly… maybe I’m getting old.  He’s no longer just Jeff Weaver’s younger brother, he is a legit ace.  In his favor this year is Josh Hamilton’s arrival.  The Angels are one of the most hyped teams in baseball after Josh Hamilton’s offseason arrival.  Chasing wins is a tricky business, but Jered Weaver has a better chance to win 20 games than any other pitcher in the AL.  The only downside is the dip in velocity and strikeout rate over the past three seasons.  Despite tallying just 142 Ks in 2012, he allowed a minuscule 2.81 ERA. I’d expect both numbers to increase slightly and another very good season from the Angels’ ace.

8. Cliff Lee, SP, Philadelphia Phillies
Cliff Lee only won six games in 2012 and plays this season at age 34/35, so how can I put him in the top 10?  The low win total was flukey, not due to poor pitching.  He had 21 quality starts, the 12th most in baseball, and deserved to win many more games.  The Phillies don’t have a particularly bad offense and if healthy could provide plenty of run support this season.  He has adjusted to life in the National League beautifully after spending most of his career with Cleveland, Seattle, and Texas (save a short stint with Philadelphia before joining them for a second go-round) and can be counted on to post a low ERA and WHIP in the 3.00 1.10 area along with 200 Ks.

7. Cole Hamels, SP, Philadelphia Phillies
If Hamels is worth $144 million to the Phillies, he is worth a top 36 pick to me.  He is right in his prime at age 29, he strikes out 200 (214 last season) a year.  He’ll play in the National League and do it with a quality offense.  He has overcome the health issues that were troublesome early in his career and has become a reliable, dominant workhorse. He provides essentially the same numbers as the very top pitchers at a more reasonable cost.  I love Cole Hamels this season.

6. Matt Cain, SP, San Francisco Giants
I’m not quite sure how two-time World Series Champion, Matt Cain, has become underrated, but he usually isn’t spoken of in the same breath as the pitchers I have ranked ahead of him.  Cain, 28-years-old, doesn’t post quite the strikeout totals of those being drafted ahead of him (193 last year, but expect around 175), but is every bit as dominant. He has posted three straight seasons with a WHIP under 1.10 and at his age, in AT&T Park, with a very good team around him, he’s a safe bet to have a big season.

5. David Price, SP, Tampa Bay Rays
One could make a fair argument that David Price is the best pitcher in baseball.  He won the AL Cy Young last season, besting Justin Verlander.  The Vanderbilt product won 20 games in 2012 and 19 in 2010.  2011 was a bit of down year though, as he posted a 3.49 ERA with only 12 wins.  That may be depressing his draft stock which can play to your favor. I’d be happy to take David Price in the third round instead of any other pitcher in the first or even the second round!  He plays in a severe pitchers park, but will face some of the best lineups in baseball in the rough and tumble AL East.  He’s talented enough to shut them down.  David Price is 27-years-old and is one of baseball’s emerging superstars.  Expect a sub-three ERA, 200 Ks, and a solid win total.

David Price

You won’t see me  draft anybody beyond this point for my fantasy team.  Getting these top four pitchers is just too costly, and in a standard 5 x 5 it just doesn’t make sense to pay the price they demand. While they are superstars in the same respect as Albert Pujols and Matt Kemp, quality pitching can be easily found in the 5-10 rounds with guys like Darvish, Sabathia, and Latos.

4. Felix Hernandez, SP, Seattle Mariners

Seattle added a lot of offense (Morales, Morse, Bay), so the biggest knock on drafting King Felix, a lack of run support and “thusly” wins, goes out the window.  Although there was some injury talk when he was signing his extension, the Mariners pledged $175 million dollars so I feel fairly confident that he is not a serious injury risk.  If there is such a thing as a 220 strikeout lock, Felix is it.  There’s a case to be made for putting King Felix in the top three, but the tough lineups in the AL West put the kibosh on that.

3. Stephen Strasburg, SP, Washington Nationals
No more babying.  It is time to see one of the best pitching prospects in ages let loose.  He led all qualifying starting pitchers with 11.13 K/9.  He could deliver a Verlander-MVP type of season, he just doesn’t have a long track record which makes drafting him where he is being taken a bit foolish.  This guy is certainly one that I look forward to watching this season.

2. Justin Verlander, SP, Detroit Tigers
Some might argue that he is the best pitcher in baseball, but entering his age 30 season with over 700 innings pitched over his past three seasons, I’m no longer crowning him the top starter in baseball and wouldn’t consider burning a first round draft pick on him (which is what it’ll take).  Nonetheless, Verlander is one of the few modern day pitchers to win the MVP and dominates the American league like no other.  He may be the most talented pitcher in baseball and still has a few more years left of his prime.

1. Clayton Kershaw, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers
While many are ranking Justin Verlander as their top starting pitcher (and he is phenomenal), Clayton Kershaw gets the nod for me.  Both play in pitchers’ parks, but a deciding factor is that Kershaw pitches in the National League, while Verlander has the more challenging task of facing the DH.  Clayton Kershaw has posted four consecutive sub-three ERA seasons (back-to-back ERA leader).

I believe we’ll look back and be amazed at just how great a pitcher we had.  I hope to watch him pitch a bit more this season (tough on the opposite coast), as he is an extremely special talent.  Oh, and Kershaw is 24, yes only 24-years-old. The best is yet to come.

Clayton Kershaw

 

Ryan Kantor of “Reading Between the Seams”, for War Room Sports

Ryan Kantor is an author at Reading Between the Seams. He is a life-long Yankees fan and a proud Clemson alumnus, residing in North Carolina, where he works in marketing research. For more stories like this, you can visit his personal blog at RyanKantor.com and follow him on Twitter at @Ryan_Kantor.

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MLB Top 20 Closers

Monday, April 1st, 2013

by Ryan Kantor

 

 

 

 

20. Jonathan Broxton, Cincinnati Reds
The Reds feel comfortable enough with Broxton to move Aroldis Chapman, who would otherwise be a top five closer, to the rotation.  Broxton was excellent last season, but isn’t striking out anyone and has a track record of injuries and inconsistency.

19. Casey Janssen, Toronto Blue Jays
Everyone loves a closer on a good team, especially one coming off a year where batters hit under .200 against him.  His stats have improved three years in a row.  My biggest concern is that Sergio Santos was originally brought it to be the closer, making me wonder how long Janssen’s leash will be if he struggles.  He’s also coming off shoulder surgery and will be pushing it to get back by opening day.  What if Santos starts the year as the closer and doesn’t relinquish?  That makes me uneasy, but he was very good last season and figures to be the closer for one of the best teams in baseball.

18. Addison Reed, Chicago White Sox
The White Sox would like to see the young (24) Addison Reed become their stopper for the years ahead, and he has the stuff to do it.  Without other thrilling options, he will be given the first shot.

17. John Axford, Milwaukee Brewers

With 39 walks, an ERA over 4.60, and the temporary loss of his closer’s gig, 2012 was not a pretty year for John Axford. On the bright side, he did record 93 strikeouts, an improvement from his two very successful prior seasons.  So his stuff is still there, he just needs to improve his control.  A bounce-back is likely.

16. Grant Balfour, Oakland Athletics
I originally planned on leaving Grant off the top 20 list due to his offseason knee surgery, however he has made an ahead of schedule recovery and is expected to be ready for opening day.  The veteran Australian has been great for the last three seasons and was very effective down the stretch for the AL West champion Athletics.  Oakland management typically has a quick trigger finger with their closer, but Balfour figures to be their best option.

15. Rafael Betancourt, Colorado Rockies
The veteran Betancourt has long been an elite set-up man and last year proved he could be a top stopper.  He doesn’t get a ton of strikeouts, and they’ve been on a steady decline over the past three seasons, which is cause for concern. Nonetheless, he has a firm grip on the closer’s job and has been a steadying force for practically every bullpen he’s been in.

14. Greg Holland, Kansas City Royals
At 27 years old, Holland could be one of baseball’s bright young closers if he can improve his command.  34 walks was ugly, but 91 Ks was nasty.

13. J.J. Putz, Arizona Diamondbacks
Putz, at 14th, is the last established closer off the board.  If you haven’t grabbed your top closer to this point, grab Putz before he’s gone.  J.J. has posted three consecutive strong seasons with Arizona and although he’s 36 and had a tendency to get nicked up, he’s got a track record of reliability.  Putz is a solid #2 fantasy closer and the last acceptable #1 closer in my book.

http://thecloserreport.com/tag/j-j-putz/

 

12. Huston Street, San Diego Padres
I’m less concerned about him playing on a poor team (remember Soria racking up saves for a bad Royals team?) than I am his health.  He is consistent though.  He’ll pitch effectively when healthy – likely under 50 innings – and manage 20-3o saves.

11. Joel Hanrahan, Boston Red Sox
Minor struggles as he adjusts to the AL East and pitching in Fenway should be expected, but after back-to-back all-star appearances, Hanrahan is one of the more reliable players at a very volatile position.  He’ll need to tame his walk rate, which got a little wacky last season to succeed in the American League.

1o. Tom Wilhelmsen, Seattle Mariners
He pitched like a top tier closer last season, is only 29 years old, and is on a much improved Mariners team.  He has a firm grip on the closer’s job and is a great value pick for a #2 fantasy closer.  Also in his favor is his nifty new change-up.

9. Jim Johnson, Baltimore Orioles
Johnson had 51 saves and 41 Ks in 2012.  He is a ground ball pitcher unlike flamethrowers like Craig Kimbrel who we are more comfortable with in a closer’s role.  His 2012 post All-Star Break numbers aren’t pretty: 4.02 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, .290 BAA. His ERA was only 2.49 last season.  It may jump a whole run in 2013, but even so, he’ll be a worthwhile closer and is more of a sure thing than most.

8. Sergio Romo, San Francisco Giants
Three straight seasons with a sub-1.00 WHIP and the closers job is finally his.  This should be the year he becomes a household name.

Credit: Zimbio.com

 

7. Joe Nathan, Texas Rangers
Nathan is just two saves away from 300 in his career.  He is one of the great closers of our time – right behind Rivera and Hoffman – and has overcome the injury that caused him to miss 2010.  Seemingly completely over the injury, two seasons later, the only problem I have with Nathan is his age (38).

6. Fernando Rodney, Tampa Bay Rays
After an Eric Gagne-esque season, don’t pay for a repeat from a soon to be 36-year old closer who had an ERA over 4.00 every year of his career except 2005, 2006, and of course 2012.

5. Mariano Rivera, New York Yankees
ACL surgery, the long layoff since he last pitched (in May), and his advanced age (43) are risks, but may make the greatest closer of all-time a bargain.

4. Rafael Soriano, Washington Nationals
Soriano had a great season after taking over the closer’s role from the injured Mariano Rivera.  With the exception of 2o11, his first year in pinstripes, he’s been great since 2006.  There’s no reason to think he won’t be very effective playing for one of the best teams in the National League.

3. Jason Motte, St. Louis Cardinals
Not the track record of Jonathan Papelbon, but his BAA has decreased three straight seasons and he was among the very best last season.

2. Jonathan Papelbon, Philadelphia Phillies
Reliability is what you want when you draft a closer in the top 100 picks and Papelbon has seven straight seasons of 30+ saves and has never posted an ERA over 4.00.  He also K’d 92 in 2012.

1. Craig Kimbrel, Atlanta Braves
The undisputed top closer in baseball, Craig Kimbrel is the only closer worth drafting in the first five rounds of a fantasy draft.  With 127 and 116 strikeouts in 2011 and 2012 respectively, his contribution goes beyond just the saves category.

We hope this serves as useful guidance in your fantasy drafts, or just learning about the league’s best stoppers in 2013.

 

 

Ryan Kantor of “Reading Between the Seams”, for War Room Sports

 

 

Ryan Kantor is an author at Reading Between the Seams. He is a life-long Yankees fan and a proud Clemson alumnus, residing in North Carolina, where he works in marketing research. For more stories like this, you can visit his personal blog at RyanKantor.com and follow him on Twitter at @Ryan_Kantor.

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2013 MLB Top 10 Outfielders

Monday, April 1st, 2013

by Ryan Kantor

 

 

 

 

10. Atlanta Braves, RF, Jason Heyward

As tough as it was to leave guys like Bryce Harper and Adam Jones off the top 10 list, the Atlanta Braves right fielder squeaks in as the 10th best outfielder in the game.  At just 23 years of age, Heyward is only approaching his prime after completing his first 20-20 season.  With the Upton brothers, Brian McCann, and Freddie Freeman hitting around him, Jason Heyward is primed for a breakout year.  The first of many 30-20 seasons from the Braves slugger may be on the horizon.

heyward

 
9.  Los Angeles Angels, RF, Josh Hamilton

In the most exciting move of the offseason, the Los Angeles Angels used their “Grienke Money” on Josh Hamilton, giving them the best outfield in baseball.  Hamilton batted .285 with 43 home runs last season, but in the two seasons prior he donked 25 and 32 dingers, respectively.  He’ll have a less grueling summer in the mild climate of southern California, but expect some regression as he moves away from the Ballpark in Arlington after a stellar year.  Something in the neighborhood of a .290 average with 34 home runs is still realistic.

josh1

 

8.  Atlanta Braves, LF, Justin Upton

The former number one overall pick will finally join his brother, B.J. Upton, as the Braves added both to their lineup this season.  Aside from the nice story and perfect marketing ploy for a team losing their legendary third baseman, Chipper Jones, Justin and his brother offer a rare speed/power combo.  Justin Upton has hit .300, he has slugged 30 home runs, and he has stolen 20 bases.  Entering his age 25 season, this will be the year it all comes together.  A batting average near.300 with about 30 home runs and 20 stolen bases is achievable.

upton

 
7.  Toronto Blue Jays, RF, Jose Bautista

One of the best pure power hitters in baseball, Jose Bautista will now have Jose Reyes to knock in for a nasty Blue Jays ball club.  With an offseason to heal up his injured wrist, Bautista should be back to the form that saw him hit 54 home runs in 2010 and 43 with a .300 average in 2011.

Jose Bautista

 
6.  Miami Marlins, RF, Giancarlo Stanton

Stanton is one of the best up-and-coming power hitters in baseball, however he will be held back by the lineup around him.  The next best power hitter and his only hope for protection in the Marlins’ lineup may be Logan Morrison. Pitchers working around Stanton is a risk to his fantasy value, but even so, it is hard to believe he won’t record a respectable average, collect a handful of steals, and hit 30 home runs – possibly threatening the 40 home run plateau.

Giancarlo Stanton

 
 
5.  Pittsburgh Pirates, CF, Andrew McCutchen

Andrew McCutchen posted 31 home runs and 20 steals to go with his .321 batting average and .400 on-base percentage. With marginally less upside and less injury risk, he’s basically Cargo in Pittsburgh (though you could argue he’s better after controlling for field effects).  McCutchen is only 26 years old and should continue dominating in the National League Central, where he will continue to be a lock for 20-20 with potential for 30-30 and .300+.

andrew

 
4.  Colorado Rockies, LF, Carlos Gonzalez

When healthy, Carlos Gonzalez is capable of 30-30 .300.  Drafting Cargo is always a injury risk, but if you can swallow the pill you may get one of the best players in baseball.  He’s only 27 years old and should be good for 500 fantastic at bats.  If so, you’ll have one of the most well-rounded players in the game.  With a quality lineup and an advantageous home field, the sky is the limit for Mr. Gonzalez.  Plus, he is the only player to post 20 home runs and 20 steals over the past three seasons, indicating that, despite the injury woes, his floor isn’t too low.

Carlos Gonzalez

 

3.  Los Angeles Dodgers, CF, Matt Kemp

We’ve made it to the top three outfielders in baseball, and these three should be obvious, even if the order is not. Coming in at number three is Matt Kemp.  He nearly captured the NL MVP in 2011, barely being edged by Ryan Braun, but 2012 was largely derailed by injury.  Even still, he remains the closest thing to a 40-40 threat in baseball, falling just one home run short in 2011, and he is just entering his age 28 season.  With a full, healthy season in a lineup with Hanley Ramirez, Adrian Gonzalez, Andre Ethier, and Carl Crawford, Matt Kemp is primed for a big year. Matt Kemp 

2.  Los Angeles Angels, CF, Mike Trout

Although many are selecting Mike Trout as the top outfielder and even the top overall player in their fantasy drafts, I stop just short, ranking the youngster as the number two outfielder and number three overall player.  While it is tempting to project a ridiculous 30-60 type season, let’s just cool off and break it down for a moment.  Mike Trout has less than a full season of track record, so some risk is inherent.  He also plays the most demanding outfield position and does so with reckless abandon, again some risk.  Additionally, he’s gained a fair amount of weight over the offseason, causing some to wonder if he can steal bases with such ease in 2013 (he was 49/54 in 2012).  He also batted .284 and .257 in August in September, respectively.  While a stupendous .300, 30 home run, 40 stolen season wouldn’t shock anyone, a still great .290, a 25-35 campaign shouldn’t come as too big as a shock either.  Still, Mike Trout is a star and will likely be a stalwart as one of the games biggest stars for years to come.
trout

 

1.  Milwaukee Brewers, LF, Ryan Braun

Despite the steroid controversy, I am comfortable calling Ryan Braun the best outfielder in baseball.  He had his first 40-30 season last year, and easily could have won the NL MVP.  He’s cranked thirty home runs in all but one of his six professional seasons.  If you can overlook his inclusion in ugly steroid rumors (as an unbiased fantasy manager should) you’ll see a player that is as much as a lock for .300 30-15 with upside to reach 40 home runs and over thirty steals.  He is a career .313 hitter and at age 29, there’s no reason to expect significant drop off from the studly, Jewish-American superstar.  While repeating 40 home runs may be much to ask, a batting average over .300, over 30 home runs, and over 20 stolen bases with a long track record of reliability earn Mr. Braun the Reading Between The Seams crown as the best outfielder in baseball.

braun

 

Players who could easily crash the party:

Baltimore Orioles, CF, Adam Jones could have easily cracked the top 10 as he is the continues to rise the ranks of up and coming outfielders in MLB.  Since signing his six-year deal last season, he managed to reach career highs with a .287 batting average, 186 hits, and 32 home runs.  This season Jones will bat cleanup which should provide opportunities for him to reach the century mark in RBI.  If Adam Jones wants to crack the top 10 he will have to improve on his career OBP of .323.

Oakland Athletics, CF, Yoenis Cespedes played in only 129 games in his first season and torched opposing pitchers with a .292 batting average and 23 home runs.  He managed to steal 16 out of 20 bases.  Now he is approaching his second season, barring a sophomore slump, he should reach 20-20 and has the potential to reach 30-20. If you don’t know any Oakland A’s players by name then keep an eye on this five-tool player.  His name once again is Yoenis Cespedes.

 

Ryan Kantor of “Reading Between the Seams”, for War Room Sports

Ryan Kantor is an author at Reading Between the Seams. He is a life-long Yankees fan and a proud Clemson alumnus, residing in North Carolina, where he works in marketing research. For more stories like this, you can visit his personal blog at RyanKantor.com and follow him on Twitter at @Ryan_Kantor.

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