Bold – showing an ability to take risks; confident and courageous.
This is the theme of my prediction piece. Boldly, my title speaks for all of the staff here at War Room Sports because if they don’t agree then they are in denial or haters (smile guys, lol). Bold is what Mayweather would have to be if Alvarez stays true to the one and only game plan that could finally defeat Mayweather.
For years there has been a silly notion that to defeat Mayweather you simply have to trap him on the ropes and pound away.
Mayweather is not a “real man”, says his opposers. He is simply a spoiled brat that knows how to run away.
For my people who love to bet money, we know to never bet with our emotions. Emotions attempt to turn real life into a movie. In movies the bad guy never wins. He gets all the luxuries in life and in the end he is derailed by the true hero. In real life, Floyd isn’t going to lose unless a fighter with better skills and a better gameplan wins, at minimum, seven rounds out of twelve, or knocks him out.
Can Alvarez knock out Floyd? Yes, but not likely.
The “trap-him-in-a-corner” strategy often leaves Mayweather’s opponents looking left as he bobs right and exits the corner or Mayweather winning the fight on the inside. Contrary to popular belief, he’s an excellent inside fighter; almost as good as he is on the outside. Floyd is perfect everywhere in the fight, but we all have weaknesses.
I know Mayweather’s one true weakness and if “Cinnamon” can exploit this for a minimum seven rounds then we may see history made Saturday.
Mayweather’s one weakness is his difficulty with opponents that move backwards and circle while popping a quick jab. It gave De La Hoya rounds in the bag during their “changing-of-the-guard” fight and it also helped Miguel Cotto. He almost seems to make very few adjustments to having the jab popped in his face, but his opponents abandon the strategy.
I’ve always thought that if Mayweather fought a Tommy Hearns, Hearns would win nine times out of ten. Styles make fights and it’s a very bad stylistic matchup for the Pretty Boy.
Tommy peppered Leonard with that jab, almost winning their first epic matchup, but Leonard dug deep and listened to his corner tell him he needs the knockout, and did just that. He was BOLD!
We’ve never really seen Floyd become bold because he’s never really had to, but I don’t think he has that hunger to “go-for-broke” like Leonard had, and would have lost the Hearns fight if he was in the same position and down on the cards.
Does Alvarez possess what it takes to pull off a disciplined win using this strategy? Yes and no. He is a very young champion and has the kind of speed that Mayweather hasn’t seen in quite some time. He also has a fast jab. Like most of Floyd’s opponents, he’s had Oscar De La Hoya in his ear telling him about Mayweather’s problems with the jab. This all looks good for Alvarez, but he’s had some issues with stamina to say the least. Can a kid who tires mid-fight actually win seven rounds over one of the most defensive fighters of all time? He also abandons the advice of his corner and likes to brawl at times. Any fleeing of this strategy is an easy round for Mayweather.
I see Alvarez winning most of the beginning rounds as he attempts to circle and stay on plan. Around the third to fourth round I see the confidence of a young man forgetting the plan and moving forward just the way Mayweather likes it, giving Mayweather those rounds. As the fight progresses, Mayweather wins the later rounds more decisively to another decision.
This is Mayweather’s biggest test to end his career. No one else has the talent or fighting style to pull off the one way to beat the Picasso of Boxing. This should lead him to his 49-0 record, tying Rocky Marciano.
How history treats him afterwards, we don’t know. Do we realize we were harder on him after retirement? Do we argue forever that he ran from Pacquiao? Are we being too BOLD and Alvarez will shock the world? Only time will answer those questions, but I look forward to Saturday night.
