Updated: Originally published on March 21, 2019
I have a lot of different column ideas backed up that I hope you all find interesting and thought provoking. That said, to write about anything other than college basketball this week makes about as much sense as a preacher giving a celibacy sermon in a brothel.
The “Madness” is back. I call it the single greatest sporting event in the world. Even the peripheral college basketball fan completes a bracket. The most OCD and micromanaging supervisors on the job realize the hope of any meaningful work being done this Thursday and Friday is futile.
Colleges that have little to no sports history of note, get on the big stage and unlike college football, actually have a chance to win. In addition, when the “little guy” like the UMBC Retrievers do win, it gives a college the single greatest recruitment tool it could hope to have. Underdogs who win typically experience about a 25% increase in applications the following year.
Magic & Bird – 1979 National Championship Game
And still, with all the interests and the access to more comprehensive data than ever before, it remains, in my mind, the hardest major sports title to win or pick. I have never picked all four and rarely get more than two. It is difficult for those of us who follow the sport all year long, as I do and have for about 40 years. Speaking of 40 years, this is the anniversary of the Magic Johnson/Michigan State vs. Larry Bird/Indiana State showdown in the 1979 Finals, to which many suggest is the origin of the modern-day tournament popularity.
This year promises to be no different.
There is never a shortage of storylines. This year, for me, the most intriguing story line is the number of teams that have a chance to meet for a fourth time. This has always been rare but even more so now as conferences have grown. This growth made it impossible for all teams to play one another in the traditional home and away format. Then there is the chance of meeting in the conference tournament and then NCAA tourney. The most memorable (and painful, as a diehard
Maryland Terrapin fan) of these for me was 2000-01 between my Maryland Terrapins and the hated Duke Blue Devils. Duke overcame a 10-point deficit with 96 seconds left to beat Maryland in game one. Then won in ACC tourney and overcame a 22-point deficit in the Final Four meeting. Ironically, the only game my Terps won was at Duke. But all four games were absolute wars. Duke would win it all that year. Maryland would win it all the next year.
There are five potential fourth matchups this year and they are as follows: Michigan/Michigan State; Cincinnati/Houston; Seton Hall/Villanova; Tennessee/Kentucky; and of course, by far the most anticipated being Duke/North Carolina.
I am dropping Michigan and Michigan State since Sparty is 3-0 over the Wolverines. You have to win one of the first three to keep me interested (I was hoping San Diego State got in, which would give them a fourth crack at Nevada, whom they beat two of 3). The remaining four are all 2-1 and none can meet again until the Final Four. That is drama.
With that, here are my Final Four teams:
Out of the South, I am going with the Tennessee Volunteers…in spite of their chronically underachieving coach Rick Barnes.
Out of the West, I pick Buffalo to be this year’s Loyola of Chicago. They are very good and have recent tournament experience.
Out of the Mid-West, the Tar Heels of North Carolina, if for no other reason than it is the one team that has no fear of Duke.
Finally, out of the East, as much as I hate to say it…Duke.
Some argue that Duke is vulnerable because they do not shoot the three well, nor are they very good free throw shooters. For your average talented team, I would agree that both flaws would undermine a team’s title hopes.
This is not just another talented team.
Zion Williamson (short of the ridiculously premature LeBron comparisons), is every bit as good and exciting as advertised. Both RJ Barrett and Cam Reddish will also be first round picks in the NBA draft someday. Tre Jones would be the best player on about 95 percent of the other teams in the tournament. They are all, technically speaking, freshman. However, in reality, there are no more freshmen playing this time of year. Having said that, maybe a lack of experience is a more valid concern than 3-point or free throw shooting. If either were such an “Achilles Heel”, they would have never been able to comeback from a 23-point deficit on the road to beat a good Louisville team. Furthermore, Virginia is easily the best defensive team in the country, giving up over 70 only 3 times this year. Two were to Duke and the Blue Devils were the only team to score over 80 on the Cavaliers. Most teams struggled to score 60 on UVA.
For all of the above noted, I pick Duke to beat UNC once more in an epic Final. Take a prop that it will go to overtime.
Do not get annoyed if I gave you a sheet with three different Final Four teams. I told you this stuff is hard and anyone with a lick of sense will hedge. LOL. Let the “MADNESS” begin.
Gus Griffin, for War Room Sports
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