That annual rite of sports passage is mercifully over.
I am referring to the National Football League draft, which is quite possibly the single most over-analyzed, unscientific spectacle in American society.
Without even going into the aspect that has an undeniable slave auction feel and optics, can you think of any other event in America that has produced more self-appointed experts with less reliable outcomes than the NFL draft?
It’s not that the Mel Kipers of the world don’t do their homework. Most of them do. It’s not that the information provided is useless. Some of it is valuable.
The reason why the draft is largely a crap shoot is because no matter how sound the information gathered about a player, it is impossible to predict, with any degree of certainty how a 21-22 year old man will react to the NFL cultural environment. It’s bigger than just the football itself. First round picks become instant millionaires. In college, none have an abundance of expendable cash. In college, he must study subject matter he may not care about for the sake of staying eligible. In college, he did not have a multitude of parasitic people around him, some of whom are his own family. He will have that in addition to opportunistic women in the NFL. Lottery winners twice their age do not have a good track record of handling such a situation and we actually believe that we can forecast how a 20-something who has not even reached full brain maturity will?
Human behavior and performance is actually relatively predictable based on past behavior and performance. The wildcard caveat to such forecasts is that one must be able to replicate the environment and circumstances under which that past behavior and performance occurred. The best college football programs cannot replicate the NFL culture for their players.
This is why so few teams have a long track record of quality drafting. As a matter of fact, only one team comes to mind that has mastered this process over multiple generations and it is not the New England Patriots. The Patriots’ success is almost exclusively a function of the Tom Brady/ Bill Belichick era and let’s be honest, they got lucky with Brady. How else can you describe it when they waited until the 6th round to pick him? Do you really believe they would have waited that long had they had any inkling he would be what he has been? The other side draft benefit to having this sustained greatness for nearly 20 years at OB is that they have not had to take a QB in the first round. First round QBs are the most expensive picks and therefore the Patriots have had more cap space to pursue other players.
Call it “homerism” if you’d like, but the team that has had the most sustained draft success since the 1970 merger has been my own PITTSBURGH STEELERS!
That year was the last time the Steelers had the overall number 1 pick, which the team used on Terry Bradshaw. He is now in the Hall of Fame! Since then:
- The Steelers have been the only team that has won at least 5 games every year. The Cowboys have hit rock bottom (4-28 in 1988-89). The 49ers have hit rock bottom (4-28 in 1978-79) and recently. The Patriots hit rock bottom on multiple occasions (9-39 from 1990-92 and 2-14 in 1981) prior to their current run. The Steelers have never hit rock bottom;
• Four of their first 5 picks in 1974 (Swann, Lambert, Stallworth and Webster) are all in the Hall of Fame. Safety Donnie Shell was a free agent from that same class, signed out of HBCU South Carolina State and went on to become a perennial Pro-Bowler and may have his Hall of Fame name called soon;
• The entire 1979 Super Bowl Champions roster were made up completely of their own draft picks. That had not happened before or since; and
• The Steelers have won the most post season games (36), games overall, and of course Super Bowls (6) since the merger in 1970.
The term we card-carrying members of Steeler Nation use to describe our draft acumen is “STEEL CERTAIN!” And still yet, even with our great history and success, in 1983 we took Gabe Rivera out of Texas Tech instead of homegrown Dan Marino. It took the organization about 10 years to become a consistent playoff team again and about 20 before Big Ben’s arrival put us back on the top. No team is above blowing it in the draft.
So the next time you find yourself watching the draft “analysts” pontificating about the grades of each team’s draft before any of the picks have put on the team pads and uniform, take it with a grain of salt. Enjoy it for the entertainment it may be and nothing else.
Gus Griffin, for War Room Sports
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